The Delphi Technique: A Possible Tool for Predicting Future Events in Nursing Education

Abstract

The 27-year interval since World War II has witnessed far-reaching change in social, economic, and political institutions. The literature indicates no deceleration of this process (Doyle & Goodwill, 1971; Enzer, 1971). In fact, Toffler (1971) suggests that we are now experiencing "...the dizzying disorientation brought about by the premature arrival of the future..." (p. 11). The transition from a fatalistic acceptance of the inevitability of future events to a more positive consideration of "futures" planning is quite recent. "Once we think of futures as events which are at least partly subject to choice and control, we can work toward improving long-range planning" (Helmer, 1970, p. 1). Several techniques have been developed to assist in predicting future events. Among these is the Delphi Technique (Helmer, 1966), which is a procedure for organizing and sharing expert forecasts about the future. It has been used in a variety of educational settings (Anderson, 1970; Clarke & Coutts, 1970; Cyphert & Gant, 1970; Doyle & Goodwill, 1971; Jacobsen, 1970). No studies using this technique were found in nursing literature, although individuals have made predictions about future events in nursing education (Burnside & Lenburg, 1970; Mussallem, 1970) and others have recommended that such studies be done (Applund, 1966; Seyffer, 1965).